As a numbers person, I can attribute the wide range of estimates for CSMA to be caused by the following(in addition to all the MM games):
1. EnviroTec-No Class V track record as yet. Phase in time, throughput rates, and even per bbl rates are so diverse as to produce near term estimates from 0 (current) to ????.
2. LPS-No record to date either. But with thousands of insurance agents and trade, credit, labor unions able to sell to their client/members the programs, this one is the sleeper. How much will a typical client invest in the LPS funds(5K each year?10K or more? What are the fund fees that LPS will collect?1/2 %? 2%? What about the collateral benefits for 125 mtge referrals for those clients that need to restructure their debt service to free up funds for LPS programs.
3. oil/gas? Very wide range here as well. No activiity in Texas as of now ranging to what? 8 new wells maybe(gas only) and then what about oil side. Still untested waters but very, very positive.
4. AdHatters is the only real track record item and even that has a range for growth. 50%? A double or a triple?
Now, we take all these earnings ranges and then we apply a broad spectrum for P/E. Some say 5. Others 10 or 15 or even 25. You tell me what price and when?
Way too many variables to even guess where stock price is going. My prior estimates were just my analysis and gut feels, conservative IMO.
But I can tell you this, if any ONE of the first THREE above hits, we will all see a price far north of where we are now. If but ONE hits...
TG |
