| Gold broke up through the recent wedge yesterday, as the U.S. April retail sales numbers came in flat. No longer an issue about weather, the consumer has stalled, which is a necessary ingredient for stronger growth. The light bulb went off with the hawks, finally suggesting that the Fed will certainly not go in June and probably not in September and maybe not in 2016. The market initially rose on short covering, but once the $1,197 level was breached, and then the $1,202 target it was clean sailing to the $1,217 target. But, the $1,222 level remained elusive and will be needed to be overcome to continue bullish momentum. Perhaps today’s U.S. Producer Price index in the U.S. will provide the catalyst. A confirmation that inflation remains a distant threat should encourage the bulls to attempt an assault. A surprise with a higher number will resume the selling enthusiasm. The U.S. dollar continues to give back value against all major currencies, which continues to be price supportive as well. These markets are data sensitive and a trend to the upside cannot yet be confirmed, but we are close. |
