Glen and all, Here's the latest from P engr off the AOL board. He called the last 2 tops, and the previous 2 bottoms, this last one however, he called just before this last dead cat bounce and now says...
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Subject: New buypoints
Date: Fri, Dec 19, 1997 01:58 EST
From: P Engr
Message-id: <19971219065801.BAA20226@ladder01.news.aol.com>
The overall market is very weak. Perhaps it is a bear as opposed to a
correction---time will tell.
The drillers will remain the strongest relative strength group due to the
fundamentals. However, I think that the buy points that I listed on 12/12/97
need to be adjusted, due to the overall market weakness as follows:
BDI 12-13
CDG 40-42
DO 39-40
ESV 28.5 - 30
FLC 26
GLM 21-22
NE 24 (poss. 27)
NBR 24-25
PTEN 23 (poss. 26)
RDC 28-29
RIG 38-40
UTI 20-21
The above levels--if reached should be bottom. However, be cautious,
do not use margin----bear markets can be unrelenting (1972-1974).
I am not sure weather the long awaited bear has begun. I think that
there are many signs that it has, but, need more time to tell.
If it turns out that we are in a bear market, I think that the drillers will
not drop too much below the above prices, because of the stong fundamentals
and because they are will be well below asset replacement cost values---
also, remember, the sector has just come out of a 15 year bear market---
the Great Oilfield Depression-----Thus, this sector has had its excesses corrected
and the stage is set for many, many years of strong growth. At these price levels
we should have 300+% moves over the next few years---even if a bear market
occurs.
All IMHO!!
P Engr. |
