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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing
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To: Spekulatius who wrote (55354)5/26/2015 9:51:21 PM
From: Graham Osborn3 Recommendations

Recommended By
E_K_S
Mattyice
Spekulatius

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I tried a couple methods of valuing CBI. The Graham's number runs about $55/ sh, DCF assuming the Vogtle costs die down is comparable to the skeptics on SA ~$55-65/ sh. Comps with PWR, JEC, DY, BCKIF, GRAM, TPC came out closer to $85-95 on EV/ Rev, EV/ EBITDA. Just for the bulls in the class. So I don't find this really any more attractive than BRK's other top holdings in terms of discount to intrinsic value. I'll tag it for a look around $40.

My thought is the 24 yo WEB would not have coattailed the 84 yo WEB. When Warren was in his 20s managing a couple mil he was doing 80-100% some years buying asset plays and undervalued growth plays for the short hold at the bottom of one of the greatest bull markets of the past 100 years. That approach is an anathema to the billionaire Buffett. Nor has he done that well the past 15 years excluding the last 3 years of bull. Where we are now is more similar to Graham's heydey than Buffett's:

static1.businessinsider.com

I find Graham's approach (or cash) more attractive until we hit the point where Buffett stocks can be bought at Graham prices. And yes, I believe we'll get there, although it'll take longer than I expect.
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