America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: steve lipson who wrote (6536)	12/19/1997 2:35:00 PM
From: Tim Kenney	of 13594

> It is still growing.< Questionable. >It is making money.< Not. They are still overbooking ad revenue. > I did not look at the stock price to conclude the odds of success had improved. Rather, I saw the odds improving and watched as the stock moved up in unison.< Competition is beating down on them more than ever and they still cannot make money. That is at best running in place. >There's nothing perplexing about what happened this year. AOL is not a greater fool stock, a mania or a tulip. It is a classic emerging growth stock that put some of the key pieces in place this year that can produce success down the road. Experienced investors recognized this,< Only inexperienced investors could believe this. >and you'll notice that they haven't panicked and raced for the exits despite some good shakes to the overall market.< Yes, and these "experienced" investors haven't raced from the general market either, but they should. Do you think the general market is a screaming buy too? Actually, this market is more inundated with inexperienced investors than it has ever been before, i.e., the famous dip dip-buyers. The last 5 dips would not have been particularly profitable but they are still buying them. That is what the Japanese did several times as their market was deflating. Japan was inundated with "experienced" investors too who saw that the cost of capital was zero so and the market was a no lose proposition. Heck, they were even right for the first 5-10 years.

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