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Strategies & Market Trends : Timing the Trade the Wyckoff Way

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To: puppyb who wrote (13766)5/31/2015 8:36:39 PM
From: Joe Highlander  Read Replies (1) of 14340
 
I think you have to be very comfortable with uncertainty to make a game plan. We don’t know and nobody knows what the market will do. Will there be another once in a life time opportunity created by market drop by 50%? How soon? Is this now “secular bull market” that will go up for a decade with only mild and brief pull backs? So it is really like walking in dark on a jungle path where we can see clearly behind us but it is pitch dark in front of us. We don’t see our feet, just can feel them. We can only sense if our feet are climbing, descending, or even while we are walking. There may be gentle up slope, steep rise, or a flat path in front of us; or the next step is beginning of a descent in a canyon or a ravine.

Then this methodology is aggressive and we have to provide the defensive element. Not lose much of our investing line. That is control the risk, invest slowly; add more only when what is invested is reasonably out of risk of loss.

The problem with waiting for market pull back- oversold in this methodology- is that not all the market timing signals are productive. So we still have to work with uncertainty.

If paper trading, you will continue that till you are convinced that you know how to deal with the uncertainty. And that, hopefully you find that the methodology does have edge and if faithfully executed probably provide gains over intermediate to longer term.

The main issue, as you very well know is deciding if this methodology does indeed provide an edge or not. If it does indeed provide the edge then all we have to do is follow it without any fear of loss, fear of missing out; not change if we have few losses in a row and never ever get arrogant or euphoric if we have few gains in a row. and not have gambling type risk taking tendency.

Best Regards.
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