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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold & Gold Stock Analysis
GLD 368.78+0.2%Nov 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: GROUND ZERO™ who wrote (29513)6/1/2015 8:40:19 AM
From: Ron Struthers1 Recommendation

Recommended By
Anchan

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I think your analysis of DUST is great but what your looking at is flawed. I really don't look at these (DUST) in context of analyzing the market, in this case the Gold miners.

What I mean is looking at DUST to represent the the gold miner market is not a good idea, for these reasons

First off, these ETTs especially the leveraged ones have a very poor record of following the market medium and long term, they are meant for short term moves and trading

2nd it is very small market cap wise, well under $200 million so not very representative, perhaps of one small gold producer

From what I seen the top 6 holdings are cash instruments, I am assuming they roll over short term options on the miners to be exposed to the index and get the downside leverage.

I just don't see it representing the mining market other than tracking short term direction

I look at the HUI index and TSX Venture

For ETFs I follow GDX and GDXJ

For example just the top 2 holding of GDXJ have about the same market cap or value of all of DUST

Would love to see your analysis or opinion on these

I think there is probably some similar wedge formations

For my observations, we have typically seen lows in these markets in May (the go away in May theme). The last 2 years the lows were in May and then we seen good summer rallies

I think we are setting up for this again, although more bullish this year because the lows were earlier in March. We have a longer term but weak rally to the upside with a series of higher lows, but the market has not been able to get much steam to the upside. I am expecting this next rally might change this as another thing I noticed is a large swing in the big, so called smart money to the long side.

In any case, I think it is more of a stock picker's market now

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