Ice,
<< It seems to me that one has to somehow project into the future - either with TA, Fundamentals, or both, - - or something - - before entering a market position, and especially while maintaining and exiting a market position. Do you not look ahead, and try to figure out what the probable future is? I don't see how you can just look at the present and totally discount future projections. >>
Good question Ice. I said I was skeptical of fortune tellers (and I would add here of cheerleaders also), I did not say that I didn't evaluate their input (which I do).
I am most comfortable with fundamentals. Clearly, the fundamentals look great for the next couple of years for most drillers. However we currently are not in the next couple of years, but in the here and now and the drillers are in a downtrend.. and it seems to be continuing!
<< Just what would be your basis for going long or short with the drillers, and what would be your basis for exiting an existing market position? >>
I don't have a fixed formula for entering and exiting. The things I consider the most are: The fundamentals have to be good. The specific stock trend has to be up . The overall sector has to look neutral or up. The overall market has to be neutral or up. Satisfying these conditions, it is then intuition that makes the final decision. Exiting is sometimes harder. With profits, greed tends to skew my view. If the fundamentals persist, I try to squeeze out more. If the overall market is in a downtrend I usually bail. I place close stops and get taken out frequently when I make poor choices.
I sometimes also don't follow my own rules.
Lots of ways to play, mine works for me most of the time. I sometimes get ticked off with those who think they have infused wisdom and know where the market or a stock is going...and with those who in the face of market realities, wave pom poms and lead the cheers.
Pete
Hope this helps - Pete |
