ZEN reports after-Tax Cash Flows us$110M per year for 22 years (Capex us$411,465,000)
ZEN reports this NPV us $438M discounted at 10%, and a IRR 24%, imo ????
In the following sample, NPV is actually us$553M for 10% discount and IRR is 26.6% (cad 81.81 today = cad NPV c$676M /61m f/d shares = c$11.08)
2017
| -411,465,000
|
| -411,465,000
|
| 2018
| Year 1
| 110,000,000
| -311,465,000
| 110,000,000
| 2019
| 2
| 110,000,000
| -220,555,900
| 90,909,100
| 2020
| 3
| 110,000,000
| -137,911,200
| 82,644,700
| 2021
| 4
| 110,000,000
| -62,779,800
| 75,131,400
| 2022
| 5
| 110,000,000
| 5,521,545
| 68,301,345
| 2023
| 6
| 110,000,000
| 67,613,677
| 62,092,132
| 2024
| 7
| 110,000,000
| 124,061,070
| 56,447,393
| 2025
| 8
| 110,000,000
| 175,376,880
| 51,315,810
| 2026
| 9
| 110,000,000
| 222,027,620
| 46,650,740
| 2027
| 10
| 110,000,000
| 264,437,380
| 42,409,760
| 2028
| 11
| 110,000,000
| 302,991,710
| 38,554,330
| 2029
| 12
| 110,000,000
| 338,041,100
| 35,049,390
| 2030
| 13
| 110,000,000
| 369,904,180
| 31,863,080
| 2031
| 14
| 110,000,000
| 398,870,620
| 28,966,440
| 2032
| 15
| 110,000,000
| 425,203,740
| 26,333,120
| 2033
| 16
| 110,000,000
| 449,142,950
| 23,939,210
| 2034
| 17
| 110,000,000
| 470,905,860
| 21,762,910
| 2035
| 18
| 110,000,000
| 490,690,330
| 19,784,470
| 2036
| 19
| 110,000,000
| 508,676,210
| 17,985,880
| 2037
| 20
| 110,000,000
| 525,027,000
| 16,350,790
| 2038
| 21
| 110,000,000
| 539,891,370
| 14,864,370
| 2039
| 22
| 110,000,000
| 553,404,420
| 13,513,050
| Date
| Year 1
| Net Margin
| NPV
| Discounted
| | | Cash Flows
| | Cash Flows
|
I also consider the “Discount Rate” high (10yr Bond Rate us2.4% + 3% risk premium) so 10% is high in current economic climate and will definitely be lowered to 6% by the first year mining (BFS).
Our same NPV at 10% of us$553M = NPV at 8% us$710,616,800, or NPV at 6% us$913,108,980
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ZEN reported pre-Tax NPV at us $614.7M ???
Pre-Tax NPV us$1.021B at 10%, IRR 39.7% (Net Rev $5454 x 30 ktpa = us$163.62M over 22 years)
http://www.business-analysis-made-easy.com/NPV-Calculator.html
Cheers, Mark (sent to ZEN)
|
