| | | I think we will have a pleasant surprise on or around 15th July, for full PEA disclosure and Technical Report.
The answer provided to my difference in NPV calc's, not verbatim, is the 1 June NR, presented summary results and conclusions, and that further detail can be expected in the coming full PEA, which in my words is taken to mean besides more detail, more concise and accurate too.
$115M usd's difference in NPV is big in determining current share price valuation of a prospective take-out, and shake my head at the RPA conservativeness when looking at the numbers. (ex., us$438M compared to us$553M)
Capex at us$411.5M, as contingencies taken now at us$80M will be at or near $0 by mining. (result of -$80M is an NPV at us$633.4M, using us$110M net cash flows over 22 years)
Discount Rate 10% is high, (Current NPV us$553M at 10%, is us$913M at 6%, which is more in-line current economic conditions and will go to zero year 1 of mining = NPV us$2.0 Billion)
Other uplifting NPV Factors,
Prices Paid/Tonne, RE's us$8500 - PEA us$7500, imo a surprise lurking for the 4th sector and that prices are not set for LiB, Fuel Cell and Powder Met. I believe by year 1 mining Chahar and Yamashito will have contracted higher than avg us$8500/t providing a big boost to NPV and IRR.
Mining & Processing and Recovery Rates should be better before year 1, based upon the new (2) smaller conceptual Open Pit, which will reduce Mining Waste significantly (Overburden same as) compared to the RE's, one large Open Pit encompassing the whole resource. Processing Optimization will continue until year 1 mining with more improvement than currently indicated.
RPA set a very conservative base, to enable ZEN to only work higher in Valuation. The problem, the TSXV no longer values companies, only trades them until forced to do so by Formal Offers.
Cheers, Mark (still my opinion AE and Stowe will get a Best Valued Deal, though like that Tesla Strategic Partner scenario) |
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