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Politics : Idea Of The Day

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To: Al Serrao who wrote (15797)	12/19/1997 11:14:00 PM
From: IQBAL LATIF	Read Replies (2) of 50167

Al-Tim Ray ST Steve -off topic Thanks for all the messages. Bad weather had closed incoming flights into 'Skurdu' Chitral- Shangrilla of Pakistan- God has created one of the most beautiful of sights in northern part of my beloved country- the majesty of the mountains is awesome- Nanaga parbat the killer mountain and 7 of the 20 highest peaks in the world sit in an area of less then 100sq km- I was totally thrilled and was rejuvenated ofcourse my Christmas and new year will be spent in Swat and Dir other areas of share unspoiled natural beauty- we sponsor some primary schools in this povery stricken areas of my country and since I was not ready to take Korrakuram highways I decided to take some basic english and maths classes for a week- It was fun teaching basic english although mine is basic too,in my opinion the only way poverty can be alleviated is population control and education- the stydents were great and teaching was fun. I will soon be opening a new primary set up in Dir however the number has increased from 70 last time to three time in one of the most backward village- yesterday I had a lunch with the Secretary of Education of Northern Areas and we are making a presentation to WB soon on possiblities of new set ups, it is fun to contribute very little I can to highlight the plight of these povertyy stricken people and get some thing going for them. Even girls have started appearing and I was surprise to see parents letting their girls go to school foe what is the first step in knowing the basics. Sorry to bore you with details- Now markets and the real bottom lines- I was never far from the markets Ray Karim and Andrew kept me busy ofcourse the week was excellent SOX rebound from lows was great- I am very keenly looking into trade balances of ASEANs up until Nov to see if imports have shrunk considerably -unfortunately I have not seen any sign of 'recession'- the SOX divergence and solid 250 level support yesterday when DOW was hugely down 260 was a great reassurance- divergence of SOX and S&P has been always been highlighted- the Japanese package finaly came thru alongwith Tax cuts I went long Japan last night 165 on JPN index- on SPA the March contracts the support at 954-55 and 945 is iportant although it did test 935 at one point yesterday some huge short positions few thousands contracts were rolled over to March within seven minute we were back up. I am amazed with strength dispalyed by SOX yesterday 250 held on very well when markets was sliding with no apparent bottom in sight. Is this the last of assault on SOX I see the support from where it turned at nearly 240 an important point it was this in mind I had on break of 280 on SOX projected a tunraround at 250 will this hold or we will see 220 or 160 on SOX I remain a firm believer in SOX being oversold and last night recovery in face of S&P weakness was rather very much in line with our strategy- on ASEA I remain firmly entrenched based on ECI_Vital Economic signs as well as Cap utilisation and durable goods that talks of major meltdown are exaggerated fears. I see SPA trtading between 920 and 985 for a week I thin SPA will see lot of downward pressure if Japan continues and cracks the 15000 pshycological barrier I doubt we will see a close below it perhaps an intraday test is on cards on Monday but affects with positive aftermath of tax cuts and stimulas package may very soon be appreciated by the market. Where do we go from here- nice to say market goes lower but I don't think so good opportunity for hit and run chippping on short side which we are quite satisfied with but beyond that 'visiblity' is for me a potential on upside and a test of 1000- it is evident that SPA has failed to make higher highs rather lower highs but the supports have also been very solid numbers and economy points to good corporate earnings and so will be the performance of DOW- the support of 7600 is very important to watch but I see even if that is tested we will see a test of 275 on SOX a proxy of techs form me. My targets are a close above 275 and an attempt to 301 within 14 days- MSFT closing below 130 is not good for S&P revival anothr leader is lost if it fails 125 110 is the possible target. I will look at MSFT action closely although it is a stock specific situation but I will rather overemphasise action of this bell weather because of its possible impact on SPA- if 110 is tested 910 is on cards- 880 -890 SPA puts is a good trade but I only will sell 2 to one 850's to finance my purchase of 890's- however I will adivice this trade if SPA takes out 943 on closing basis or intraday retest 943 after once coming down and bouncing back. Will write more on Monday- SOX rebound has taken many with surprise but more is to come in my opinion. Potential divergence of SOX an SPA what we highlighted in last few weeks may soon be witnessed last night close above 262 was very positive signal.Lets see a confirmation with a second close above 262 and an assault to 275. A failure to do so in next few sessions would require a rethink of my strategy.

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