My semi-annual review of GERN
INTRO Here's my semi-annual exercise to see if I remember why I own the stocks I own, and so I can check back and see if their stories have changed. I post in case it helps others too.
Geron
GERN (market cap was $0.511B EOY14 is $0.676B mid 2015)
Geron is a leading edge biotech that was diversified across four innovative technologies. Unfortunately, development of each has taken longer than expected, the finances were insufficient to develop all four, and the company has had to divest itself of all but one: telomerase. Telomerase treatments, however, are more than enough to revolutionize cancer and autoimmune treatments, improve the lives of many patients, and make the company profitable. Currently, the treatments are being tested in clinical trials regarding blood disorders. The results are encouraging enough to advance to the next phase. Telomerase management manages cell growth and death by affecting the molecule that controls whether a cell lives (and if it lives too long cancer can develop) or whether a cell dies (cells dying prematurely is one characteristic of autoimmune diseases.) The treatment of blood disorders, then, is a test of the technology. An FDA-approved treatment for one disorder makes it easier to expand the ailments that can be treated.
The stock, GERN, is highly speculative, as are all innovative biotechs. I will continue to hold, and would buy more as opportunities and news arise. The market cap is typically around a half a billion, so any dramatic appreciation assumes an eventual market cap in the billions or tens of billions. Such a rise effectively caps its probability because of the diminishing number of companies that reach those levels.
DISCLOSURE LTBH since 1999 and continuing to hold (though I sold much, partly for diversification, partly to raise funds.)
(I've also collected links to the other discussion boards and my other stocks over on my blog trimbathcreative.wordpress.com |
