Factory Orders Scream Recession: Annual Drop Biggest Since 2008
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2015 10:10 -0400
Part-Time Jobs Surge By 161,000; Full-Time Jobs Tumble By 349,000
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 07/02/2015 09:35 -0400
While the kneejerk reaction algos were focusing on the +223K jobs number reported by the Establishment Survey, few if anyone notched that the Household survey reported a decline of 56,000 workers in June.
But what's worse, is that according to this survey which according to some is far more reliable than its peer, the composition of the US labor force once again deteriorated rapidly with part-time jobs added in June surging by 161,000 while the number of full time jobs tumbled by 349,000.
Putting this number in context, while the total number of US workers has long since surpassed its previous crisis high, the number of full time US workers has yet to overtake its November 2007 lever of 121.9 million, and in June dropped to 121.1 million.
Why is this a problem: because while the US still has 800k full-time jobs to go to at least regain the prior peak, during the same time period the US civilian, non-institutional population has risen from 232.9 million to 250.7 million: an increase of 17.724 million!
This has never happened outside of recession... Year-over-year, factory orders dropped 6.3% (adjusted) but 8% non-adjusted, the most since the financial crisis. Against expectations of a 0.5% drop MoM, manufacturers saw new orders tumble 1.0% and previous months were revised dramatically lower.Factory orders has now missed 10 of the last 11 months.
Factory Orders have fallen for 9 of the last 10 months...
Seasonally adjusted things look terrible...
Non-seasonally adjusted they look even worse..
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