Does anybody have a good feel for how many companies there are out there that would be willing to spend the two to ten billion to get into the US local market and how many companies there out there that would help accomplish this goal?
Just trying to figure out if we'll have a buyers or sellers market.
Obviously T wants in. I would assume Sprint would want in, but haven't been hearing much. Think WCOM would want somebody else. How about the Baby Bells? Anybody think they'd spend the money to get into the other markets? How about the foreign Teleco's? British Telecom still looking serious at US loccal? Cable and Wireless? Anybody else big enough that would want to enter this battle? And what will happen with GTE? Buyer or buyee?
And who can get them there? Obviously Teleport and WinStar would seem to be top of the list for any that would want national exposure, like a T, FON, BTY, WCOM. Intermedia and ICG? ARTT? Now Teligent. McLeod and GST, but mostly regional. Seems to be about it. Unless the T's, FON's and BT's decide to go after the Baby Bells, if that would make any sense.
So what do we have, a buyers or sellers market? What happens to WinStar stock if AT&T enters a deal with Teliport, or vice versa? There's been talk of Teliport getting bought at less than current prices. Would sound like a buyers market, "sell to us at $50 or we'll buy WinStar and your stock will collapse". Or are there really 5 or 6 companies that NEED WCII or TCGI, and this will create a bidding war like for MCI once one bid is made?
Just thinking and speculating on a Saturday morning with nothing else going on. Who's got this all figured out? Or willing to make some bets or guesses? |
