> In reference to this sectors continuous downtrend
> large institutional holdings and Fidelity ContraFund starting to sell
> the blood letting may still not be over
> These guys are killing it. When they move, they ARE the market
> if we are entering into a bear market, which I think we are
>the best sector may do well just to stay even
Scott,
Here's an observation I've made that seems eerily consistent with your assessment.
I pulled up 6-month daily charts for the following 35 stocks: ATW BJS CAM CDG DIVE DO DPSI DWSN EGEO ESV EVI FGII FLC GLBL GLM HAL KEG LSS MDCO MDR NE OLOG PDE PESC PKD RB RDC RIG SESI SII SLB SNY TDW UTI and WII.
Scanning from one chart to the next shows an undeniable pattern. That is, something happened during [approximately] the first week in Oct, the first week in Nov and the first week in Dec. During those 3 time periods, these stocks got hit in 1, 2 or in all 3 of these time periods, creating peaks in the chart patterns. SNY is one that shows the pattern clearly.
I don't know how funds unload their holdings in terms of timing, but it seems to me to be more than coincidence that all these stocks - almost without exception - show such a similar pattern. And not only is the pattern evident, but it seems to be systematic...in that during the first week or so of the past three months, prices plunged.
Not that history necessarily repeats itself, but I do wonder - will the first week or so in Jan bring on another wave of selling - thereby creating another peak? Is there indeed something systematic going on? Possibly by funds, as you say? If not, then how can it be explained otherwise?
To the extent that charts reflect the market, I would have to say that something nasty is going on with this sector. Something I don't understand, except in in terms of what you've just outlined. Yours is as good an explanation as any, at least that I can see from my perspective.
Thanks for your post.
Ice |
