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Strategies & Market Trends : Buy and Sell Signals, and Other Market Perspectives
SPY 693.87-0.2%4:00 PM EST
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To: rdkflorida2 who wrote (72953)7/10/2015 12:43:52 PM
From: Kirk ©  Read Replies (1) of 221692
 
The problem with the replies you get might be with the question...
I've taken a totally Unscientific poll of friends and family about stocks. All say world events and markets have them scared. So I ask if they are selling anything//everything? NOPE. So with the fear index in the terror zone and bears out numbering bulls in all the indicators we watch they are holding. My question: Is everyone/anyone telling the truth? I cannot find anyone selling into the rally moves. Me thinks more down is needed. But WDIK. Just my two cents worth. RDK
Ask what percentage of their total assets they have in stocks. Then ask if they are adding, holding or reducing here.

Even here, I believe many who call themselves "bulls" are mostly out of stocks and just trade with a small percentage of their total net worth to make extra dollars or have fun.

It would be interesting to see if when someone says they are "bullish" for the next week in GZ's poll if they are
  1. Like me, holding a very large (over 50%) of assets (not counting my home) in stocks and they adjust a point or two up or down depending on sentiment....
  2. holding a very small (under 10%) of assets (not counting your home) in stocks and they adjust a point or two up or down depending on sentiment....
  3. Really committed to they can time the market and are 50% long or 50% short depending on their timing outlook.
I believe this allocation or commitment to the long term sloshes around on decades long scales while the "noise" is what we measure with sentiment polls and can potentially use to scalp a few bucks.
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