Hi Joan,
Here's some weekly forecast information. I have been frustrated not having a "current" indicator which gives a solid, conservative view of the current situation so I tried putting one together this morning. I was able to provide the following market calls... not particularly exciting as far as timing, but the are fair calls as far as where the market is headed when the indicator changes:
- Going into 1987 the market was on a BUY.
- the week of Mar 3rd, became a sell.
- the week of April 28th, became a buy.
- the week of Aug 11th, became a sell.
- the week of Sept 1st, became a buy.
- the week of Oct 13 became a sell and is currently on a sell.
To complicate things a little further, we are still on a VIX "Unified" buy meaning the market should get 5% above Dec 11ths price or at least to a 8,200 peak. However, we are also on a partial VIX sell... meaning we could go lower before going higher.
To FURTHER complicate matters, my Barron's based indicators show the market is bullish for this coming week overall but BEARISH for each and every day.
When I have seen such a hodge podge of signals, both up and down, it has usually signalled a very active week with little progress by week's end. BUT NOT ALWAYS.
And I'll see your interest rate and raise you employment data in 1998 and SEA in 1997.
JUST BE VERY CAREFUL THIS WEEK!!!
Bill
PS My newly developed CURRENT indicator includes A/D as one of it's inputs... there are actually 6 inputs into it: % over 200 day MA, % over 40 day MA, A/D, DJ, VGY and NAZ. |
