If you view California as a nation (would be 8th largest GDP in world), it is essentially ending/cutting its subsidy for rooftop solar... I guess it's more of a cut with the move to charging a minimum just to be hooked up to the utility grid -- up until now, people installing rooftop solar could (depending on capacity, usage, etc.) sell back excess electricity and not only negate their bills, but also get credit/money back... it made it possible to recoup the cost of the rooftop solar in 10 years or less, again, depending on capacity, usage, etc... starting with the new rate changes, that will no longer be possible -- rooftop solar customers will be able to reduce their bills to the min. amt., but won't be able to zero out, etc., their bills, significantly increasing the number of years it would take to recoup the cost of installing a rooftop system...
This will have a ripple effect throughout the silicon-based solar industry as one of the largest markets for it will be shrinking significantly, thereby reducing manufacturing numbers -- at peak production, the unit costs were dropping because of high volume demand and increasing demand... unit pricing may not increase (or it may), but it won't be dropping nearly as fast as it was up until now... the wild card would be if this results in excess manufacturing capacity and not as much demand to utilize it -- perhaps creating a temporary price war until supply (manufacturing capacity) vs. demand for silicon panels rebalances, thus affecting panel prices nationwide. |
