Caussa Capital (formerly Antares) T.CAU Message Board

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Gold/Mining/Energy : Caussa Capital (formerly Antares) T.CAU

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To: Little Joe who wrote (1886)	12/20/1997 6:06:00 PM
From: JD	Read Replies (1) of 4718

Always something to worry about. The inevitable social unrest that will occur in Asia could be quite traumatic for ALL mining companies in Indonesia. Consider: 1 The IMF has put out a list of 1997 projections vs 1998 forecast for various countries. The country with the greatest reduction in forcasted growth .... Indonesia. (-42.%) Message 3014965 2. Article from Sydney Morning Herald today. smh.com.au article opens: Violence is inevitable among Indonesia's teeming poor as their grinding poverty worsens. and makes references to Soehartos failing health and contains passages such as... But the meaning was clear. The political and economic pyramid which President Soeharto has so skilfully built, with himself at the apex, must be reformed for Indonesia to move on. ACCORDING to the leader of the 38 million-member Nahdatul Ulema (Muslim Scholars' League) Abdurrachman Wahid: "There is a very deep change. People now see that the end of the President's rule is not a possibility but an imperative." SO WHAT'S IT MEAN FOR ANZ..... Don't know ... or I'd be rich by now. But some things are likely and there impact should be considered. It is possible there will be a new leader running the show in Indonesia in the next year (proclomation/death of Soeharto/civil war). Will the COW's be issued by then?, will the new players abide by them?, what are the risks of the country nationalizing all properties?, what are the risks of a new regime giving all the young properties to 'preferred' majors (remember what initiated the BRE-X saga)?, etc. etc. Food for thought. Not very palatable but sometimes reality bites. I hope I'm just worrying for nothing. Personally, I'm EXTREMELY pleased that ANZ has the management it has and the other projects (BC, Lady Lina, Rappa) to grow with should the worst assert itself. JD

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