America On-Line: will it survive ...? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : America On-Line: will it survive ...?

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To: steve lipson who wrote (168)	9/24/1996 10:28:00 PM
From: Joe Gleason	of 13594

Steve, I offer 5 SOLID reason's why SHORT is better then LONG! 1) The current price of the stock makes it trade @ 117 X 96 Earnings .50 cents a share 2) The Estimate if all GOES AS EXPECTED for 97 is $.97 - 1.20 @ today's prices that's about 50 X earnings They have to get over the captilazation of marketing ie.. they cap the cost of those free disks... over 3 years Kinda like floating a check to make this weeks payroll 3) They are un-compatible with current internet standards and slow 4) Cable in the home will be the end WINNING route If it's the telephone co or Cable co - OR POWER CO: 5) Look at how all other internet providers are doing - are they any differing then a glorifed ISP (horrified) What could buy them time: * A deal with someone like quicken - where they put together a killer - secure fun and freindly @ home banking system and profit directly. * A one time OOOPS charge to wipe off the tital wave of marketing debt that's been capitalized * Some bogas deal with a country that wants filtered content ONLY: * Another round of upgrades from companies trying to unload there positions * Some strange facination with them by the press I used to own and run a software company with over 80 employee's, we invested quite heavly into the internet - I lived this stuff... I sold and no longer stress over it! I think there are much safer investments that long AOL... Not to say shorting or options is any better that's pure gambling.. but with odds I don't mind playing for! A company given AOL's position - played out 10 times is likley to miss the mark @ least 50% (If not substantially more)- so playing options that pay 5->1 are good! If your not a captian you need not go down with the ship! As a quote in Peter Lynch's books say's "It's wife's your stuck with, and stocks you can get rid of" These are just my opion's and should be taken as such... Always go with what your common sense tells you. But's it's always fun to run it through the RINGER

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