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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!
LRCX 142.62+2.2%Nov 21 9:30 AM EST
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To: ForYourEyesOnly who wrote (3983)12/20/1997 9:12:00 PM
From: Jay M. Harris  Read Replies (2) of 10921
 
THC, You have a good shopping list! I do think we will revisit the 96 lows. This is because the 96 cycle did not flush the speculation out of the DRAM market. I do believe that we may have a fast cycle 9 to 12 months and that the equips will discount this within the next 4 months.

The market is getting extremely efficient at discounting cycle dynamics. Memory pricing ticking up 50% will be your time to mortgage the house and buy cheap equips. Remember, the fundamentals of the equips will be in the darkest hour and you will not want to do it. Bearish stories will be on every front page of every paper and no analyst or brokers will be telling you to buy. I personally will overweight AMAT and KLAC.

Fewer things in life are more difficult to do. You must disentangle yourself from your emotions and sort through the BS to the significant facts. Remember, you sell equips when orders are accelerating and buy when orders and earnings are decelerating! This is probably the opposite of the CFA program which stresses risk management and capital preservation not much wealth creation. I'm not picking on CFAs because I have many CFA friends and they work very hard and are very smart. I'm just putting my spin on what creates significant buying and selling opportunities.

Jay
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