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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Mattyice who wrote (55454)	7/27/2015 9:14:58 AM
From: Graham Osborn	Read Replies (1) of 78751

Well Mattyice, I'm sitting here in absolute fury. I just spent the last 2 weeks slaving over my short thesis on AGN. Some 30 odd pages. And now this morning I open the Wall Street Journal to discover they are now likely divesting both the generics and possibly distribution business as well for 40B+ cash. Which means an thesis based on leverage is going to be either impaired or dramatically revised. What my analysis clearly showed was the old Allergan was the only part of the business (if you can call it a "part" after 3 months) which was growing organically, so naturally these are the businesses divested. They're still a rollup, and a rollup needs rev growth to roll, so they have to buy something else to keep the stock price up. But Moody's probably won't downgrade them again anytime soon. I'm left to cheer from the stadium with the rest of Wall Street as Brent Saunders cuts his capers, moving so fast that by the time the party ends he'll be long gone with a few hundred mil in "transformational" bonuses. And I'll still be an analyst eating cat food. Maybe CBI can take a leaf from AGN's book. Sincerely, Graham

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