" you can't just assume as you do that the earth's temperature will be static except for the effect of CO2"
I won't assume that you are the only person in the world to assume that you are smarter than every climate scientist in the world by figuring that out, cuz I've seen similar nonsense from others.
"include assumptions about how much CO2 will cause warming vs other factors"
We know how much warming CO2 has caused (>100%), cuz we know how much the other factors have cooled us.If the curve is linear, we are right on track for 2.5 degrees increase for a doubling of CO2. But, I digress...
Figure 1: Net human and natural percent contributions to the observed global surface warming over the past 50-65 years according to Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HK11, light blue), and Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange). This has been added to the SkS Climate Graphics Page.
skepticalscience.com
Figure 2: Percent contributions of various effects to the observed global surface warming over the past 100-150 years according to Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), Stott et al. 2010 (S10, gray), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HR11, light blue), and Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange).
Figure 4: Percent contributions of various effects to the observed global surface warming over the past 25-30 years according to Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), and Foster and Rahmstorf 2011 (FR11, green). |
