All; RE:" Study of the OSX.X 4 of 4 "
O I L S E R V I C E S E C T O R
Clear and Present Trading Opportunities
The OSX.X Oil Service Index consists of three Sub-Sectors:
DRILLERS MACHINERY & EQUIPMENT SERVICES
The Bellwether for this Sector is Schlumberger; all of the
the OSX.X component companies are highly correlated to SLB.
Schlumberger is reputed to be in the Soros Quantum Fund -
shares of which cost $23,000. each, minimum 10, off-limits
for residents of the USA to purchase. Quantum is a "Hedge"
Fund; Soros makes money on price change, as well as growth.
Were I an "investor" in this sector, I would buy/hold SLB.
The OSX.X Sector is currently depressed - the intermediate
trend is DOWN. However in the short-term, we belive it is
over-sold. On Friday the OSX.X reached the bottom ( of its
DownTrend Channel ) and there was climactic volume on most
components- as well as other, oil services stocks that are
not components of the OSX.X Index, but in this OSX sector.
From this, we must be allowed to conclude that this volume
was not the result of some index arbitrage programme - but
a broader-based capital inflow to the sector itself.
Sudden downdrafts like this that are met by investor-grade
capital produce what are called "Hammer" or "Doji" symbols
on Japanese Candlestick Charts, as in "hammering out a new
trend". At present the OSX.X has formed a Hammer, as well
as almost all other stocks in this sector. We do not know
the "extent" of the reversal- we only know that "sentiment"
has changed. We assume that the far target is near the top
of the intermediate DownTrend Channel, and nothing more. I
am listing my trading picks here, FWIW.
(1) The OSX.X Index 106.56 -----> (a) fill gap @ ~109
(b) ~112 near target
(c) 115 intermediate
JAN 105 CALL OSXAA 7-1/4 JAN 105 PUT OSXMA 4-1/2
JAN 110 CALL OSXAB 5 JAN 110 PUT OSXMB 6-7/8
JAN 115 CALL OSXAC 3 JAN 115 PUT OSXMC 10-1/8
(2) The Driller Sub-Sector :
* 33 target NBRAG JAN 35 CALL 3/4
-------------------30--- NBRAF JAN 30 CALL 1-7/8
NBR 29-1/8 ----> 32-1/2 = 10 % NBRMF JAN 30 PUT 2-1/2
(3) The Machinery & Equipment Sub-Sector :
* 23 target VRCAX JAN 22-1/2 CALL 1
-------------------20--- VRCAD JAN 20 CALL 1-3/4
VRC 20 --------> 22-1/2 = 10 % VRCMD JAN 20 PUT 1-7/8
(4) The Machinery & Equipment Sub-Sector :
* 22-1/2 target QIFAX JAN 22-1/2 CALL 1-1/4
GIFI 20-1/2 ----> 22-1/2 = 10 %
-------------------20--- QIFMX JAN 22-1/2 PUT 3
(5) The Services Sub-Sector :
IO 28-7/8 ----> ? Buy Cash and Hold. Average down
to the gap @ 26 if IO fills the
"window" there. LAST SUPPORT 24.
...this is an interesting stock - half OSX and half Tech;
It is only partially correlated to the SLB Bellwether, but
draws strength from being a TechStock within this niche.
-Steve Joyeux Noel |
