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To: John Carragher who wrote (814)	12/21/1997 10:45:00 AM
From: greenspirit	Read Replies (1) of 990

John, I'm no economist, but I like to challenge my predictions against those IMF guys. I disagree with some of their analysis. The Fed should and did not raise interest rates because of one main reason, inflation. The situation in Asia will continue to ensure for the next year very low inflation in America. The Asian economies need to export goods and services will be very strong next year. My prediction, less than 2% inflation for 1998. This low and near deflationary period, will cause the long bond yield to stay below 6% for most of 98, which also will ensure housing starts remain strong. Coupled with the more aggresive stance of many states to push Welfare recipients to workfare programs, unemployment will remain below 5%. The correlation between growth and inflation is tenuous at best. I will be watching the gold market for signs of what the Fed will do in 98. If it remains below 320.00. The FED may actually suprise everyone and cut rates. The more difficult analysis is in corporate profits. An area I'm still sitting on the fence trying to analyze. JMHO Michael

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