| | | @EXCO
As mentioned, I took an in-depth look at the firm. The equity will be wiped out with a high level of certainty. Asset values arent holding up and the only other significant value are the NOLs. Both combined are still not sufficient to ensure any recovery on the equity level. Problem is Exco's cost base is rather high and current $3/mmbtu levels are hurting them. Although they did mention on turnaround, I think theres some so much they can make more efficient or lower cost.
Preferably debt should be bought at lower levels, LNG is expected to be depressed and with a good reason.
Additional supplies from Australia and lower demand from Europe (milder weather, coal, and alternatives) means that Asian LNG is now around $7-8/mmbtu from the high of $11-12/mmbtu as excess cargoes from Russia for example pushes down prices while Europe is around $6-7/mmbtu. While current US Henry Hub LNG is around $3-4/mmbtu region, current high shipping costs of over $8-10/ mmbtu west-east means that for US gas to be viable and sold throughout, either
- US LNG goes further south (current situation + share wells are uneconomical to stop, just look at Marcellus)
- Shipping + processing costs is down even more (current going under sub $10/mmbtu)
- Asia LNG prices rises again. (almost certainly not happening)
So US prices will likely be depressed unless there's significant demand from US itself, or shipping rates fall so low that US gas is competitive with Asia.
So something to watch out for. |
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