Waiting for the big Kahuna Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Richard Estes who wrote (12016)	12/21/1997 10:59:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Richard, Part 2: Yes, I have and so did Joan who posted yesterday about VIX... and it has been getting higher and higher recently and traded in the 30s for a while there... very unusual from what I've seen. I can't predict ANYTHING! All I can do is give forecasts which, hopefully, have a certain degree of confidence associated with them... but from annecdotal evidence, extremes in volatility TEND to be associated with market tops! And maybe THAT is what VIX is trying to tell us??? Another point about where I think you are coming from... I get the impression you are looking for the perfect indicator, TAers "holy grail." Well most of what I have seen i fairly unholy and you have to read between the lines to figure out what is what. And to be perfectly frank with you, I DO NOT TRUST VIX (yet). As you allude to, indicators have a way of changing in their predictive powers over time and with no apparent reason. So I am just reporting what I see with comments. Bill

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