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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: William H Huebl who wrote (12029)12/21/1997 11:33:00 AM
From: Richard Estes  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
"... but from annecdotal evidence, extremes in volatility TEND to be associated with market tops!"

yes, but how does that allow daily/weekly forecasts. No, not looking for a holy grail here, if I was I would look elsewhere. I Just saw you using VIX for forecast and could not see how you were doing it or why. Just curious. Simply wanted to hear how you thought VIX today had anything to do with market a day or week later.

My suggestion was: this unusual period, like the 87 drop, is not appropriate to read VIX dealing with levels that have occurred twice in ten years, if you expect to continue forecasting with it. No, good indicators continue to be of value, bad indicators fail because they showed only a short term random conection to what it was predicting.
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