Regional Subscribers to Reach 221.5 Million in 2002;
Digital Migration Continues
WASHINGTON, Dec. 19 /PRNewswire/ -- Strong demand for cellular and PCS
services in the Asia-Pacific will vault the region ahead of North America and
Western Europe to become the world's largest regional wireless telephony
market. The Strategis Group examined 23 Asia-Pacific countries and projects
the Asia-Pacific cellular and PCS subscriber base will reach 221.5 million by
2002. In its latest edition of Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Markets: 1997, The
Strategis Group also finds that subscriber service revenues in the Asia-
Pacific market will continue to rise annually over a five-year period,
reaching US$89.4 billion by 2002.
World Cellular/PCS Subscribers by Region: 1995-2002
Graph available upon request.
Source: The Strategis Group, Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Markets: 1997.
Market growth and new competition has encouraged cellular operators to
adopt digital technology to expand network capacities. At the close of 1997,
digital subscribers account for an estimated 72 percent of the total
subscriber base in the Asia-Pacific, and are projected by The Strategis Group
to reach 92 percent by 2002. While GSM is the dominant digital standard in
terms of widespread use, Japan's PDC standard has the largest subscriber base,
approaching 26 million at the close of 1997. The Strategis Group projects a
shift in digital technology mix over the next few years, however, largely due
to the success of CDMA IS-95 deployment in South Korea and Hong Kong, and the
planned deployment in large markets such as Japan and China. By 2002, the GSM
900/1800 standard will lead the market with 35% of the total subscriber base,
followed by CDMA with 24%. PDC's share will fall to 17%.
Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Digital Subscribers*: 1997-2002
System 1997 % of total 2002 % of total
subscriber subscriber
base base
GSM 900/1800 13.5 18% 77.2 35%
CDMA 800/1700/1900 5.6 8% 57.6 24%
PDC 800/1500 25.9 35% 37.6 17%
PHS 7.6 10% 28.5 15%
Other Digital 0.0 0% 2.0 1.4%
*subscribers in millions
Source: The Strategis Group, Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Markets: 1997.
At the close of 1997, over two-thirds of the Asia-Pacific's cellular/PCS
subscriber base is found in two countries: Japan (50%) and China (18%).
Through 2002, The Strategis Group projects rapid subscriber growth in China as
well as in newer markets such as India and Vietnam. Market deregulation will
inject new levels of competition in these countries and contribute to
expansion of the subscriber base. By 2002, the leading markets in the Asia-
Pacific are projected to remain Japan, China, and South Korea, with the gap
between Japan and China becoming increasingly smaller.
Top Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Subscribers by Country: 2002
Region Subscribers
(Millions)
Japan 71.0
China 64.1
South Korea 23.9
Australia 9.4
Taiwan 9.1
Source: The Strategis Group, Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Markets: 1997.
The Strategis Group anticipates that the effects of recent currency
devaluations throughout the Asia-Pacific will not have a 1ong-term impact on
cellular demand and market growth. Cellular/PCS market growth levels for the
entire region are expected to sustain levels between 20% and 40% annually
through 2001, falling to a more moderate rate of 16% in 2002. Subscriber
growth will be the weakest in the third and fourth quarters of 1997,
particularly for Thailand. These findings reflect an expectation of short-
term market weakness in markets that will resume rapid growth in 1998.
The Strategis Group -- with offices in Washington, DC, London, and
Singapore -- publishes in-depth market research reports and provides
customized consulting services and continuous information solutions to the
cable TV, satellite, Internet, competitive telephony, and wireless
communications industries. The Strategis Group's market studies, valuations,
and strategic planning projects provide crucial information to communications
industry leaders throughout the world. Asia-Pacific Cellular/PCS Markets:
1997 is available for US$2,300. Please contact Mei Huang at 202-530-7500
(phone), 202-530-7550 (fax), or mhuang@strategisgroup.com for more
information. Electronic versions of the graphs contained in this release may
be obtained from kmiller@strategisgroup.com.
SOURCE The Strategis Group
CO: The Strategis Group
ST: District of Columbia
IN: TLS PUB
SU:
12/19/97 09:27 EST prnewswire.com
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