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My Opinion Only: To the extent that devalued currencies deliver paycuts, importers to those populations will also take the cuts thru lost sales (or deferred, if you prefer, effect is the same), thus exporting the cuts. For companies exporting at their margins, this will be (case by case) disaster or merely "challenging." Wisdom here has it that we can't slow technology...don't bet on it. Market forces are like rising water, can't prevent it, can't control it. We're going to see structural corporate change world wide, lower prices world-wide, lower profits world-wide, and incredible bargains for investors during the next 12 - 18 months. For now, I'm going to 100% cash. That includes RE investments. Absent gut wrenching change in the Asian economies, the IMF bailouts & piddling tax cuts will prove insufficient. One thing I have learned is that every "recession" is different, so searching for "similarity" to previous events is a good way to be outflanked. It's what's going on NOW that counts. Chaz. |
