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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Brad Bolen who wrote (12040)12/21/1997 3:28:00 PM
From: Tommaso  Read Replies (2) of 94695
 
If you look at this website you will see that hardly more than 20,000 hits have been recorded. Many of these must be repeats--at least in my case I must have visited it 20 times. So maybe a few thousand people maximum have visited it. Suppose that only one in ten U.S. investors makes any use whatever of the Internet to check out investment advice and opinion. Aren't there now supposed to be something like forty million people participating in the stock market? One tenth of that would be four million. So maybe one investor in a thousand has visited this bearish website. That would be one tenth of one percent bears.

I was going to throw in a factor of a hundred to be safe and say, well, maybe ten percent of the investing public might be bearish. But if you are in a mutual fund you obviously aren't really bearish at all.

In any case, I think that genuine grade A pedigreed bears are in extremely short supply nowadays, and that in itself is a strong contrarian indicator.

users.dircon.co.uk
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