<..but your seem to forget that cable only has 10-15% of it's plant cable modem ready..>
But it's growing as we speak - and in the urban and more well-to-do rural areas where high bandwidth demand is the strongest - ie., where the bandwidth pie sits.
<...I'll claim that 30% of the lines have load coils, bridge taps, >18,000 ft distance problems today....>
Estimated ranges are from 25% to 40%. And the bitch is, for the most part, they don't know WHICH 25-40% HAVE the problems, so they need to pretty much test it ALL.
And we know from ds1's previous post here (and from other news reports) that that is a time intensive prodcedure. And then to FIX a problem once found can take upwards of 50 manhours. I'd say that's MORE than a little daunting, ESPECIALLY if it turns out that the ILECs may have to turn around and make all this work and technology available to CLEC competitors at or below their cost. And even MORE especially if sufficient residential demand isn't there (no bandwidth "must-have" "killer app"). AND if it is there, the telcos have to compete with higher speed / cleaner line cable at $40/month. And cable modems look even MORE attractive as they are integrated with the interactive TV experience.
<..Do you think Bell Atlantic is sitting on their collective asses and not upgrading for a DLC solution?...>
As per the above, for most RBOCs, in a word - YES (for the most part). They will certainly have to look hard at costs. Upgrading some plants to DLC is a far cry from testing each residential line for it's ability to handle ADSL. But I DO think there will be some limited roll-outs and extended testing in 98.
<..When I start to see 2002 quotes, I start to think of a BS article. Cable..>>
I agree, ANY report could be WAY off. But then again, it's certainly worth considering. What would you have said in Dec of '96 if someone told you how many ADSL lines would be installed in a year?
<..should have been at the 100,000 modem level 3 years ago...>
And with the billions being poured in by Uncle Bill, how long until we hit 1MM cable modems?
Regards and good luck-
Steve |
