It's now mid-August. We are in the summer doldrums. Synoptic activity will start gearing up soon as the Arctic cools. I'll start posting some synoptic analyses.
Winter forecasts are coming out. Accuweather and CPC look like 'run-of-the-mill' El Nino. They take a composite average of all the past El Nino's and add a modification due to 'the blob' off coast of Pacific NW. This naturally enhances ridging in the region. I don't blame them. It's the strongest El Nino since 1997.
There is not much talk about the 'polax vortex' or 'Siberian express'. Winter forecasts show that due to El Nino warming, the polar jet stays up into Canada...thus no major cold air outbreaks. I say we're in for a surprise, because the 'polar vortex' is related to what's going on in the North Atlantic Ocean, and that story hasn't changed from the past 2 years.
A curvy polar jet like the past 2 winters would merge with a moisture-laiden subtropical jet. That is fuel for baroclinic mixing. This would lead to record snow from New Mexico to Georgia and up to Virginia (DC area). NE US should be spared, but damn...it's all in the polar jet structure. If the polar jet stays north into upper Midwest, there won't be much fuel from ridge over Pacific NW. Thus, wet/rainy winter for Gulf Coast states. Fine by me, too.
I say curvy polar jet + subtropical moisture = lots of snow...southern Rockies, ice/snow in west and north Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama, and snow from Georgia to DC. I'm bucking the trend on this. Gulp! |
