Re:Brian, from reading SEMI it appears they might err a bit on the
optimistic side
GM,
They trimmed their projections for '98 from ~14% growth to 11%. That is a huge amount; several Billion $'s in equipment expenditures taken out of the picture. But for one to say there will be flat growth next year- show me the evidence. I cannot speak for the others in the sector: LRCX, NVLS et al. but AMAT forecasted eps for FY98 of $2.08-$2.15 after the asian party had already begun. To me, this implies sequential flat growth even though it's ~40% above this years eps. Take last qtrs eps of .49 x 4= $1.96 for FY98 in eps w/o any growth over what we are currently seeing. So for any analyst to project FY98 #'s below $1.96 imples NEGATIVE, not flat growth!!!! LUDICROUS!! We were headed for a FY98 of $2.40-$2.50 if the asian contagion was not a presence IMO. From everything I've heard/read, reducing eps #'s down below $2.00 doesn't make much sense, esp given the fact that mgt is known for giving excellent guidance. One more thing, AMAT had a 6 mo. backlog if order pushouts should present themselves, thus giving them a buffer zone. And take into account some bullish comments by JM about customers actually pulling-in their orders also backs up my contention that the selloff we have seen is OVERDONE in a BIG way. One more note, at SFAM's CC last Wed, they also said that some customers were pulling in orders. The BEARS have had their fun, but IMO, they are about to be chased back into the woods for a hibernation.<G>
Regards,
Brian |
