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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices

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FJB
TideGlider
To: Wharf Rat who wrote (881899)8/23/2015 1:31:22 PM
From: i-node2 Recommendations  Read Replies (4) of 1575781
 
>> 2015 global temperatures are right in line with climate model predictions

THAT is called "weather". You remember, the video with the guy walking along the beach with the dog condescendingly trying to explain to use idiots the difference in simplistic terms?

>> Climate model global surface temperature projections have been quite accurate

Using nonlinear techniques it is not unusual to fit a gradient to a curve after the fact. The trick in "predictions" is predicting. That is, doing it before the outcome is known.

What we do know, historically, is since 1998 there has been no warming. Whether 2015 ends up being warmer I have no idea. You will have warmer years from time to time when the trend is generally toward warming. That doesn't mean it has anything at all to do with people or CO2.

And in fact that is the reason Michael Mann just lopped the MWP out of his Hockey Stick graph. Because if it is shown that a warming period isn't unprecedented, then well, it is hard to conclude that CO2 has much to do with it, and there goes the federal money.
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