John Pitera's Market Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory

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To: The Ox who wrote (17170)	8/23/2015 9:36:32 PM
From: John Pitera	2 Recommendations of 33421

The psychology of the Market was very interesting this past week.... and this past month... I found it very interesting that CNBC made the point that the VIX had kicked up by a double digit % for 3 days in a row and showed the prior to occurrences were the market rallied the week after that. It was also interesting to see Dennis Gartman to go from being short Crude to calling a bottom on a Friday and going long.... which he then admitted was unusual for him and he may be rushing it a bit. Art Cashin who is truly a gift to those who follow the markets...... had two comments... regarding Monday... he said it's all about what happens in China tonight. He also did note that Apple has two competitors selling cell phones exceptionally well against the I phone in China. I still believe that Sept 28th of this year will be an important time period for the Global markets.... There have been very significant global economic dislocations.... for several months as we approach that date. When the SPX , NASD close on their lows on Thursday and Friday and lose so much ground and break through trendllines ..... 200 dma's etc.. you have to believe that Market goes down on Monday..... .... of course there is turn around Tuesday .... and This is not the end of the world..... it is safe to go outside.... -g- ..random musing........ If we were ever to see a market "crash" .... i.e. a really big down day it strikes me that tomorrow could be such a day. Global currency movements are the single biggest thing that if they change dramatically then cause very significant changes in other asset classes. It's amazing how Argentina's wheat crop failures have been noted as being the root causal starts of asset contractions that lead to the tremendous Panic of 1907 and the Crash of 1929. I was rereading Ron Chernow's house of Morgan last night and it outlines in detail the 1907 situation and Citibank issued a history of The First National City Bank of New York in 1986 that we had copies lying around on the trading desks in Sydney and that book details the 1927 Argentine Crop failure and how money is pulled out of emerging markets after periods of speculation and exuberance.. I'm mildly surprised that no one has made a comment paralleling Martin Zweig's comment when he was interviewed on Louis Rukeyser's\'s Wall Street Wee on Friday Oct. Oct 16th 1987.... were the DJIA had closed down 109 or so that Friday after topping at 2766 on August 22 and then making a secondary high on the Oct 6th eclipse at 2662 and then started to sell off. Zweig's comment was that he did not take it lightly but " frankly I'm concerned that we that we might have a market crash on Monday. That is a once in a lifetime event to have the US market go down 22% in a day and thus I should not see it again. Currency dislocations were behind that crash as Treasury Secretary James A. Baker had told the European's and partially the German's that the US was going to let the US Dollar decline dramatically..... Obviously there were numerous other unique factors that had come together ina perfect storm for the Oct 19th's 508 DJIA decline to occur.... frankly no one really can say exactly how low the market got on Monday and Tuesday as the tape had gotten hours behind on Monday and Tuesday around 11 AM was super thin.... The FED came in and bought a boatload of Futures and that is always on table these days. Has CNBC ever had a special Sunday night live session... I saw a bit of it... I believe it's a first. ---------------------- As we head into the fall with Russia and China being under such economic pressure does it translate into a Military situation........ John addendum... as I have talked to several people recently this has seemed to really catch many people unaware .... it almost like the John Lennon song lyric... "that life is what happens will you are busy making other plans"

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