Hello Rick. I have been enjoying the weekend and time with my family and have not been back to these boards since early Saturday A.M. Your concerns centered around three factors:
1. << It seems to me that if a company announces a $10,000,000 stock buyback program, complete with such lawyerly phrases as "up to" and "from time to time", the stock should take off. >>
I never believed the stock buyback would have a great effect on the stock price. I posted this previously, along with my observation that it is not in any way a negative. Through this whole pullback, which began before the Schering deal, Zonagen management has focused on consummating the Schering deal and preparing the NDA filing. The buyback was a hoped for way of showing their confidence in the future of the company, without falling into the trap of spending their time responding to every short attack. They have more than enough cash in the bank to do this and still be able to fund research and operations for years. Once the rest of the upfront payments are received and the royalty stream begins, they will have enough money for decades.
2. <<Mr Ploth, the CFO of Zonagen, has all of 1,000 shares of Zonagen stock in his possession. He may or may not have a ton of options - I don't know>>
This issue has come up before. I can tell you that Mr. Ploth does have a large option position which he could have exercised and sold if he desired. The fact that insider selling has been negligible should tell you all you need to know of Bill's "pump and dump" theory. I don't know what Mr. Ploth's financial or investment situation is, but he stands to be a rich man if Zonagen delivers the goods in the future, as they have in the past.
3. <<The ZONA chart is not a reason to celebrate if you own the stock. Would you expect a fund manager or an institution to buy anything with almost 25 points of overhead supply, well below its 30-week moving average, a strong downtrend still in place, and relative strength that is off the low end of the chart? >>
In truth Rick, I'm not celebrating right now, but I'm still very bullish on the future of this company. When the stock was on an upswing, and the technicals looked great, I never got too excited about it. Now, I don't get too concerned. TA works until it doesn't. Charts change and biotechs are volatile. I think fund managers will weigh many factors in evaluating a stock. Some will pay more attention to TA than others.
When you get right down to it, if Zonagen management, directors, consultants and contract research organizations are taking a huge personal risk by perpetrating a fraud that has either fooled or involves Schering-Plough, then Zonagen investors will lose. If the Phase III results are valid and Schering understands how to analyze a drug's potential better than the short shills who have been so voluble and repetitive here of late, than Zonagen investors will have a home run in their portfolio. |
