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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: Tommaso who wrote (12000)12/22/1997 5:02:00 AM
From: Real Man  Read Replies (1) of 18056
 
I just have a trial scenario for the 98-bear market, which looks
as follows:
1) SEA has deflation and Asian currencies crash.
2) Asia floods US with cheap products, competition in certain
areas (autos, high tech) intensifies. Hedge funds are done shorting
SEA currencies. These currencies rise.
3) US and the rest of the world also wants them to rise.
$ falls, foreigners flee US markets.
4) Japan sells the bonds, interest rates rise.
5) Kahuna.
I prefer to be short/in cash now and watch the dollar.
Too long to be true, BWDIK?
-Vi
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