Re:What is it worth if they earn $1.40 per share??
Dave,
Will you give no weight to mgts. guidance pf $2.08-$2.15? Disregarding their projections entirely and lopping a third of eps off for FY98 implies a lack of confidence in mgt. If this is the case, why would you want to invest ant all in AMAT??? AMAT mgt gave their guidance on Nov. 20, after the asian debacle had already begun. I have stated numerous times that they have assumed order cancellations into their forecasts, otherwise we would be looking at a FY98 of $2.50.
Ian,
I think along the same lines that you do. People have little foresight(or imagination) as to what the future will bring and what applications will be DRAM intensive. They are around the corner friends...we just cannot see them yet. Voice recognition, which is here today, runs like molassess on even the fastest machines. Once this is incorporated into say MS Office, are you telling me we will not see a surge in upgrades?? I for one can say I am anxious for the day all of this hunting and pecking is over with once and for all. DVD will play on PC's currently, but not the same full screen quality you'll get on a TV, assuming there are applications running concurrently. The point I am really trying to make is that there will be additional applications that haven't even been dreamed of yet, which will run slowly on even 1 Gigabyte of DRAM. They are out there being produced as we speak, so sell your AMAT shares if you think nobody will ever need additional DRAM/logic power. After all, only several years ago most PC's came with 40MB and 4 MB of DRAM and the Dave Dhillons we saying at the time "who needs more than 4 MB?" The only thing that is certain is that this cycle will continue for the forseeable future.
Regards to Both,
Brian |
