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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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From: weatherguru9/4/2015 12:18:34 PM
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The ridge over the east coast US (heat wave) will break down in one week. Once it breaks, the storms and cooler air will rush down. It'll obviously be a stair-stepping process into autumn.

Low #1 - Cold front into upper midwest ~ Sep 10
Low #2 - Warm up and then cold front into Oklahoma, Georgia ~ Sep 14
Low #3 - Another warm up and a strong cold front into OK, TN, and VA ~ Sep 19

~Sep 20, the high pressure ridge will build and stall over SE US. It'll be seasonably cooler over eastern US (especially NE US) with south winds over Rockies and Great Plains (warmth). The ridge will remain over SE US through the end of the month with a couple of low affecting the upper Midwest (bringing snow to upper MN and UP Michigan at this time).

Over in SW, the monsoon flow will remain active. I can't believe what happened in Phoenix with the storm. El Nino is stamping out droughts along the southern U.S. and not in a gentle way. However one defines a drought in Arizona, it is done. Here in central Florida, 15'' of rain fell in August and 30'' have fallen since June 1. I see maybe one storm hitting central Cali ~Sep 25 to give them rain. I expect/hope more rain falls in central Cali in October (October should be peak of El Nino) through November.

The hurricanes in the central Pacific are a reason I am expecting snow in upper midwest by the end of this month. It's a giant see-saw, where the ridge builds in Pacific and the trough is enabled over continental North America (mainly east of Rockies).

I'll soon plan to post/discuss some winter seasonal forecasts.
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