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Gold/Mining/Energy : Timberline Resources

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To: mfrank who wrote (80)9/4/2015 4:15:57 PM
From: sense  Read Replies (2) of 104
 
If the directors had, in fact, done nothing... TLR would be road kill, now, along with most of the rest of the junior mining hopefuls. They've succeeded in keeping TLR alive... which isn't all that anyone hopes for, but it's vastly better than the alternative. The process of consolidation has brought in cash to keep them afloat, and moving forward on projects, at a time when others are full stop, dead in the water. They've also added new portfolio projects... growing "value" over time in adds of solid projects brought in near the market lows... which is what you do want to see management doing, in a junior gold miner, when the markets are bumping the bottom, and investment money on decent terms is almost impossible to find. TLR has done that a lot better than one of the others I follow, with an experienced management and a track record of recent successes, that I'd hoped might also be able to use the market situation to advantage... doing deals for shares near the market bottom, and surviving by consolidation while growing the value... but, TLR's performance has beaten them in spades.

I don't expect to see TLR stock rising... in a market for gold miners that has all of them in decline. What I expect to see in RELATIVE performance... is a comparable move in share prices... that's not reflective of the fact of the improvement in value that is occurring over time. If you are a value investor... you should focus on the accumulation of value over time as the key responsibility of the management... not making the share price rise in a market that's going down ?

I do follow gold miners that HAVE risen in price, in spite of the market trends, recently... And, the way they've done that is by selling interest in their development stage projects to bigger companies after they've proven up a resource on a scale that generates competition to partner with them... or by selling the company to those large company partners. In order to accomplish that, with any of the portfolio holdings at TLR, they'll need $ to raise money to fund the exploration effort to a level of completion that makes those deals doable.

I'd prefer TLR be a company that does NOT try to raise huge money to fund exploration at the bottom of the market... or in a declining market... but be a company that continues patiently surviving, while acquiring new and larger potential values... as other companies difficulties mean TLR's access to deals in the market becomes better with time...

As far as Montana... the company doesn't control the process of permitting the roads... that's a known... and it's just a FACT. If there's a point to make in being pissy about the company because of the fact... I don't see it. I'll agree, obviously, that the government is the problem... which isn't the only instance now, with government deliberately smothering the entire economy... nor an answer about how best to proceed to enable resolving the problem.

Would TLR be better off not having the interest ? No. Will TLR benefit WHEN the damned thing finally gets a green light ? An honest answer... I don't know. Given market conditions, at the time, it may prove true that a green light in the permitting that enables proceeding... won't matter much... depending on the POG. Meanwhile, having just done a quick screening for gold and silver miners that ARE making money... that included all the big name miners that have been the buyers of the better development projects doing deals... I haven't found a single gold miner that's actually making ANY money, now. The only thing left in the gold mining sector... is shopping for greater value in "better" relative advantage in potential, when that's on sale now.

A clear head requires making honest comparisons of TLR's performance with others... not simply punishing the employees, and taking it out on them, because times are hard in the gold fields... when you wish they weren't. Is TLR in better position, now, than it would be, if the board had done "nothing". Clearly, yes.

How should translate into policy in the award of options ?

Share prices aren't close to being a perfect measure of job performance of course... as, obviously, there's not more any management could do to make the price of gold rise and put the shine back into markets for gold mining stocks. So, I disagree on your concept of using the stock price as a full measure of performance...

That's not saying I don't think its necessary to have a serious conversation about tying pay to performance and about ensuring proper incentives are created, that will best operate to align the insiders interest with shareholders interests, and NOT others... while structuring "pay for performance" based on some metrics that make sense to shareholders, as well as those we seek to incentivize and reward...

What I do note, given the recent series of changes... is that the issues I addressed in my last post... still aren't being addressed. There needs to be more communication than is occurring, now. TLR has become far LESS transparent, recently... including that I currently don't have a good feel, at all, for what the current crew are hoping to accomplish, how they're hoping to get it done, how they're viewing the market situation, what their plans and priorities are, and how they were established, or even who the hell they are. I expect a lot of TLR shareholders are still absorbing the recent changes... while still trying to determine if they're actually going to be good for shareholders longer term interests... or not.

As a point of comparison, relative to a previous negative experience... I'd note the history at U.S. Silver... solid enough under Tom Parker... but an absolute disaster after his departure, in the hands of a worthless band of discordant backstabbing directors... who wrote themselves a paycheck, and gave the company away to market operators, not mine operators, in a "deal" that made no sense... when Hecla (who ARE still making money right now, with the lowest costs in the industry) had a cash offer on the table. They threw USSIF shareholders under the bus, and destroyed the company. Parker had operating costs down around $8 to $10... with silver at $12 to $15... was making money. The new "crew" have that "down" to around $21 currently... with silver at $14.

The point being... before asking for a payday... it might be nice to make sure you've got everyone on board... and have made everyone comfortable with the plan... the changes that have occurred... and show us that its working... give us an HONEST assessment of the risks and opportunities in this market... and what the board are hoping to accomplish given that market situation.

Right now, I have NO CLUE what TLR is going to be working on next... Having agglomerated a bunch of different parts into a new "unit"... in market conditions that seem to require doing more of that, just to sustain momentum, and keep the growth through aggregation proceeding at a pace that ensures survival... without resulting in massive dilution...

Recent changes in the "rules"... are a cause for concern. What's the new boards INTENT in relation to potentials that those changes hint at, if they're not telegraphing them...

I don't have any issue re doing a deal with Gunpoint... but I'm not liking the potential of doing one at Gunpoint.


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