Mike Allen.
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THE CONVERSATION -- "The Truth About the 2016 Race: The GOP outsiders dominating the polls remain longshots; the under-siege Democratic front-runner retains an edge," by Larry Sabato; Sabato's Crystal Ball managing editor Kyle Kondik; and associate editor Geoffrey Skelley: "As Nathan Gonzales of the Rothenberg and Gonzales Political Report recently observed, college football, which just kicked off last weekend, will have a new national champion before any of the caucuses or primaries are ... held. ...
"Clinton remains a strong favorite for the nomination: ... Clinton could lose both heavily white Iowa and New Hampshire, and still have a fairly unobstructed path to the nomination because of her mighty position with women and minorities. This is true even if Vice President Joe Biden enters the race. This is not to say Hillary can't find a way to blow it. Her inept early campaigning and bungled handling of the email controversy underline the inadequacies that helped Obama beat Clinton in 2008. ...
"Trump is still unlikely to be the nominee: ... Out of ... 17 GOP candidates, five come closest to meeting the usual metrics required to win a ... nomination: Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Ted Cruz and John Kasich. As concerned as many are about Bush's dynasty burdens and Jeb's uneven, unexciting performances on the trail, he still has the best chance to win over the party establishment (big donors and big-name politicians). ...
"Rubio is widely acknowledged to have the most political talent on the debate stage ... Like Bush, Scott Walker has been somewhat wooden, but his hero status as the union vanquisher ... carries weight with financiers and rank-and-file Republicans alike. ... Cruz has raised more money than any Republican but Bush ... Kasich is more of a longshot, but he has impressed many senior Republicans ...
"The 2016 election will be unique: ... Trump might bolt the GOP eventually despite his pledge not to. However, Trump knows, whatever the exit polls may eventually show about his independent run, he'll be blamed if Hillary Clinton secures the White House in a three-way race." politi.co |
