just returned from a macro-discussion trip to shanghai
everything is fine
the stock casino is not relevant
the people are all excited about belt and road and
domestic main street economy is in good shape except that some customers abroad may be hiccup-ing
the domestic capital market is fine, except the late entrants to the side show that is the stock casino
domestic monetary affairs are in normal space, being interest for loans and deposits, and
bank reserve ratio is amongst the highest on the planet, at 16-18%, w/ lots of space to cut
real estate market is recovering, that which truly matters
ghost cities have hit bottom and is beginning to attract residents
we must remember that both shenzhen and shanghai pudong were one-time ghost cities, they are necessary
all good
however, it is interesting that a mere 3% devaluation in china can ostensibly cause, per wsj, cnn, nyt, fox, a round of equity tanking amounting to 9 trillion on this planet (w/ 4 out of 9 in china)
but we must remember that the 4 tril 'lost' in china was a needling peak meaningless to china
i suppose the other 5 trillion are as meaningless
i sense opportunity coming, but perhaps another 50% down on the s&p per planetary tightening would make a better wager
what fun |
