ERG:
Earlier, I commented that MU had sold off most of what was saleable last year......I was wrong, although if there's a business I wouldn't wish on my worst enemies right now, it is the "custom fabrication' game (read circuit boards)......from that point of view, this is a positive for MU. That said, any business can be a worthy purchase if the price is low enough so I suppose we'll have to wait until the details of that" recapitalization" become public knowledge before deciding who beat up on whom.
It looks like a good bunch of shorts capitulated in this past few days, which is of course a positive for those who remain or choose to get aboard now. In my case, this morning appeared appropriate for the first "add-on".
Many shorts are worried that the longs include both Soros and Fidelity. I see this from a decidedly different perspective, viewing it as a positive for the bears.
Why this perspective?
- Soros never allows the public to know what he's up to until it serves his purposes......any brokerage house that broke confidence would be immediately ostracized. The fact that his involvement is public knowledge suggests that he is already selling.
- Soros is famous for his management approach, which includes a propensity to dump ruthlessly if a position is going the wrong way, and to CONTINUE TO SELL UNTIL A LARGE SHORT POSITION IS ESTABLISHED. From my point of view, his current involvement as a long provides a high probability of a double dose of high powered selling.
- How would you like to be Robert Stansky, nursing a bruised and very large MU position, having just been told that the current messy and disappointing earnings will only get worse for the foreseeable future, AND KNOWING THAT ONE OF THE WORLD"S QUICKEST TRIGGER FINGERS ALSO OWNS A BAGFUL? A cause for a bit of worry?...perhaps a few sleepless nights?....no of course not....heh,heh,heh.
- Which of these bright gentlemen, should we expect to be inclined to hold the bag whilst the other takes his leave? Chuckle, chuckle, chuckle.
- Might we suspect that they are watching each other for a first sign of serious selling? Perhaps a bit of surreptitious "jitneying" already occurring?
Julian must be grinning at this situation. A spectator at the OK corral. All he has to do, is what shorts do well,....exercise patience.
Best, Earlie |
