Trump Victory in the Republican Primary Message Board

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Politics : Trump Victory in the Republican Primary

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Nov 17 3:59 PM EST

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From: bentway	9/15/2015 11:44:12 AM
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The Republican Candidates Donald Trump Has Hurt the Most Lynn Vavreck SEPT. 14, 2015 nytimes.com ( H/T to Sam ) excerpt: Donald Trump is hurting all his fellow Republican presidential candidates, though some more than others. Rick Perry, who suspended his campaign on Friday, is at the top of that list but is far from alone. To assess the flow of support among the many candidates since Mr. Trump entered the race in June, I turned to panel data collected by the survey research firm YouGov. In August, the firm re-interviewed 1,418 people it first interviewed in May. Because the first wave of interviews was done before it was known Mr. Trump would declare, nearly every Republican in the survey had an initial preference for someone other than him; in fact, the survey didn’t even ask about him. The results from the second survey, done in August, reveal whether voters 1) stuck with their initial choice; 2) moved to someone else; 3) moved to Mr. Trump. Of the 608 Republicans in the survey, 54 percent moved off their initial choice — 20 percent to Mr. Trump and 34 percent to one of the other candidates. The survey also revealed information about Mr. Trump’s supporters. Voters who moved his way were less educated and older than those who stayed with their initial choice or those who switched to another candidate. They were also more likely to describe themselves as conservatives, but not strong ones. Going to church regularly made people less likely to switch to Mr. Trump, but being Tea Party members made them slightly more likely to do so. [much more at the link]

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