Dave,
Even if AMAT does fall short for the qtr., don't you think the market at least partially discounted this fact? We're down 50%+, during the last downturn in '96 we saw 60%. How much more damage realistically can be done down here? Assuming the bottom falls out and there are fab push-outs, and AMAT makes $1.70, not the $2.10 mgt is sticking to, it is still only trading at 17X this years earnings, not pricey by any gauge IMO.
Additionally, even if we do miss I think the forward looking comments will be the important factor come Q1, a la Q4 of 1996, when AMAT missed but came out w/ + comments, the stock bolted ~$8.00 in one day. I think we are at a similar situation here. Like then, the stock has taken a pounding and has impounded alot of bad news. Absence of such news in and of itself will propel this one much higher IMHO.
Regards,
Brian
BTW,
Wouldn't you say it's also + news that at this time AMAT is sticking to BOTH their Q1 and FY98 projections? And NO push-outs, nada one?? This isn't good news with the stock trading 50% below where it was only two months ago????
BTW #2:
What makes you think they will warn if they haven't seen ONE push-out from asia yet? Please elaborate. |
