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Pastimes : Bridging weather and climate
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From: weatherguru10/2/2015 11:22:43 AM
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Why the change in Joaquin forecast? Here's a loop showing 2 areas of dry air 'holding' Joaquin in place. The dry air over the Gulf is a developing upper level low. This low will cause the flooding over the SE U.S. It has nothing to do with Joaquin.



The 300-mb flow is strengthening. High pressure over Quebec will ensure this,and the strong westerly flow will push Joaquin to Europe in 1-2 days after sitting over Bahamas for a few days.

Here's a view of the upper-level flow (300-mb). The lines are isotachs (related to temperature) and the shaded regions are winds. The brighter the winds = faster, and vectors are added to help see direction of winds.

I'm looking at the loop in isotachs over Florida. That's the upper-level low, and the strong winds over Georgia ensures the rainfall over the east coast is NOT related to Joaquin. This upper-level low will keep Joaquin off to sea, and the strong westerlies further north will push Joaquin to Europe.

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