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Biotech / Medical : 2015 Biotech Charity Contest
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To: BulbaMan who wrote (346)10/2/2015 11:07:44 PM
From: Robohogs  Read Replies (1) of 407
 
I was running some numbers in my head on the carnage. And the numbers just kept not making sense. Finally, I pulled some charts and prices from back in June/July and this week. A couple of observations:

1. Many stocks moved up 20-35%+ from lows this week to close. Before making a judgement on that, note most of those stocks were slightly down week on week.

2. IBB rallied on week after briefly going very red on year and week.

3. It looked like panic selling beget panic buying.

4. As bad as things look, many stocks are only modestly down from late June. There are a few antiobiotic/Martin S exceptions. Overall, I am seeing only 5-10% from then - of course it was much worse midweek. And there are RARE exceptions up from July 1 (I like that one lol) even if those are still down a lot from 2 weeks later.

5. Peak panic buying occurred in mid July. Prices remain quite a bit below that, call it 1/5 for our universe.

6. Much technical damage done. Much. Almost all stocks are below 50 day. Most below 200. On EMA basis, that will look better though with this week's low given more weight.
Crazy.

DO NOT look at Sept 30 statements. It seems selling was concentrated into not showing bio bios on Sept 30 holdings assuming T+1. Lows were Sept 29 mid to late afternoon.

Someone shot a zinger earlier in week or last week noting the lows weren't in as I thought in August. Well, for bios, we just had an undercut low in XBI and a re-test save for IBB. Individual bios mainly did go to new undercut lows.

Mkt as a whole though had an undercut Russell low with a re-test save in S&P. Most technicians prefer undercut lows in indices with fewer issues hitting new lows. Check for Russell. Note the 2008/2009 low was undercut variety. Explosive upside followed. 2011 was the save variety. It was also explosive and did not look back.

There was panic bio and FANG buying today. Not sure what to think.

Jon
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