Are the GOP candidates willing to allow America to default on its debts?
By Paul Waldman October 8 at 12:32 PM
The debt ceiling is like a tumor that sat benign within our government for decades, then suddenly became malignant once the tea party came to town. And so it is that we could yet again be headed for another crisis. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew has informed Congress that if the debt ceiling is not raised, on or around November 5th the government will no longer be able to pay its obligations, and the United States of America will default on its debts.
This is occurring at a time when Republicans in the House are about to pick the next Speaker, and all the contenders are busy trying to convince the caucus that they are the most conservative, most confrontational, least practical, most Obama-hatin’, Obamacare-repealin’, government shuttin’ candidate in the bunch.
But there’s another group of Republicans that could exercise some leadership on this issue: the presidential candidates. Where do they stand on the debt ceiling?
First, let’s refresh our memories. The debt ceiling exists because of a law passed in 1917 that was an attempt by Congress to exercise control over how the Treasury Department issues bonds to cover America’s debts. So Congress passes budgets, but then also has to pass an extra bill authorizing the Treasury to issue new securities to cover what Congress has already spent. In the past, debt ceiling votes had a kind of ritualistic character: some members of the opposition party would rise to condemn the administration’s spending priorities and a few of them would cast a symbolic “no” vote, but everyone knew that the bill would pass. That all changed in 2011, when all those newly minted Republican members of Congress realized that the expiration of the debt ceiling was a great opportunity to blackmail the administration into giving them what they wanted. So we had to go through a couple of crises, in which we got closer and closer to default, which would have been calamitous for the U.S. economy and perhaps that of much of the world (here’s a nice explainer on this topic from 2013). In the face of today’s looming crisis, there are three possible positions anyone, including presidential candidates, can take on the debt ceiling:
We should just raise it.
We should raise it, but only after trying to extract concessions from the administration. In other words, we should threaten to destroy the American economy, but not actually follow through, provided we get what we want.
We shouldn’t raise it at all.
The first position is the one all Democrats take. Their argument is that we can debate the budget and anything else all we want, but risking a default is just too dangerous. The third position is utterly and completely insane, because it means actually advocating economic catastrophe. Yet many people who don’t actually understand what the debt ceiling is will hold that position. Which may be understandable — this is a somewhat arcane issue, and a lot of people just think raising the debt ceiling sounds like more debt, and more debt would be bad, so we shouldn’t raise it. Like most polls on topics about which people know very little, you can produce widely varying results depending on how you ask the question, but many polls in the past have shown majorities or pluralities of Americans saying that the ceiling shouldn’t be raised. That fact obviously gives Republicans some assurance that they can create a crisis without all Americans realizing just how reckless it is. The second position has been the one most Republicans have taken since 2011: Yes it should be raised, but only if we get some of we want, like budget cuts, or the repeal of parts or all of the Affordable Care Act, or tax cuts, or something else yet to be determined.
So is this what the presidential candidates think? Ben Carson was asked about this during an interview with the NPR show Marketplace, and in the course of the back and forth, it became fairly obvious that Carson does not actually know what the debt ceiling is. This is at once utterly appalling and not unexpected, given his general indifference to policy (judging by this interview, he also doesn’t understand how the Affordable Care Act works, despite being a doctor). So it’s impossible to determine where Carson stands. Some of the other candidates were in Congress during the last few years when this has been an issue, including during the debt ceiling crises of 2011 and 2013. Marco Rubio voted against the increases both times, saying he wanted more Republican priorities attached as the price of raising it. Rand Paul also voted No both times. Ted Cruz wasn’t in the Senate in 2011, but in 2013 he joined with Rubio and Paul to vote No. Lindsey Graham voted No in 2011 but Yes in 2013; he has repeatedly argued that the debt ceiling should be used to extract concessions on spending.
Donald Trump says that Republicans should threaten not to raise the ceiling in order to get the Obama administration to agree to spending cuts. In 2011, however, Trump actually told Republicans they should engineer a default on the debt, because the ensuing chaos would prevent Barack Obama from getting reelected.
In 2013, Carly Fiorina said that “it is not wise to fool around with the debt ceiling,” but also argued that a deal to increase it should include budget cuts. In 2011, Chris Christie was asked about the debt ceiling and said: “If the president and these guys lead, we’re never going to get to that point,” which isn’t saying much of anything; he doesn’t seem to have talked about it this year. Bobby Jindal has evaded talking about the possibility of default in the past. John Kasich, who chaired the Budget Committee as a congressman, has advocated deals to increase the ceiling. “If you want to put your head in the sand, and you want to put yourself in the position of where you let America default, you’ve got to be kidding me,” he said in 2011, though more recently he has been more evasive when asked a specific question about the current deadline. Mike Huckabee wants Congress to refuse to raise the debt ceiling unless Planned Parenthood is defunded. I have been unable to find anything that Jeb Bush has said on this topic.
So: all the GOP candidates who have taken a clear position on this issue have come down as pro-extortion. But extortion only works if you can convince the other side that you’re actually willing to follow through — in other words, if Democrats and the White House believe that Republicans are willing to create an economic meltdown. And some of them surely are: today’s New York Times quotes tea party congressman Mick Mulvaney saying about the debt ceiling: “I’ll play chicken with you every time. You think I am crazy, and I know you are not.”
He was talking to another Republican advocating prudence, but he might well have been speaking for his entire party. Are the presidential candidates crazy? It’s hard to say for sure, but they’re certainly willing to act like it. |
