Hi Gene,
Re: Segment 0's
While I understand your concerns regarding the possibility of a paradigm shift, I think you are losing focus on Intel's future and future opportunities. Do you seriously think Segment 0's are going to replace servers running the infrastructure of a massive global network? Do you think Segment 0's are going to replace mid range computers (e.g. AS400's) or mainframes?? I sure don't. But I do think Intel's future products will. Intel is on a course to dominate the high end of the market the same way they dominated the desktop for the last 2-3 decades. That's why everyone including DEC, IBM and SUNW are lining up behind INTC. Thus far they have barely begun to tap this huge opportunity. This is where the big bucks will be made in the future.
Of course, in addition to the high end, INTC will continue to be the biggest winner on the desktop (including Segment 0's) and mobile computing. Add to that, expansion into non-CPU businesses and I see a future for INTC which is much much brighter than anything we have seen in the past.
Perhaps I'm overly optimistic, but my money says INTC's best days are in the future. Everytime I step back to do an objective analysis of the fundamentals of this industry to decide whether or not there has been a significant change (which warrants reallocations of my portfolio) I come to the conclusion that Intel is stronger now than it has ever been.
BTW, you mentioned that it is nice to have contrarian views. Well, based on all the ramblings I read from the pundits including the overwhelming almost religious mania surrounding Segment 0's, my opinion and those of the other INTC longs on this thread are the contrarian opinion. The popular opinion is that Intel's best days are history, Segment 0's are going to rule the world, and all technology products on the face of the earth are doomed to become money losing commodities.....at least that what I read everyday <ggg>.
Good luck,
FF |
